According to the latest Reuters poll of economists, higher US tariffs on Japanese car exports are less likely now, as the two nations agreed to start new trade talks.
Key Findings:
“Twenty-seven of 35 analysts said the chance of higher American tariffs on Japanese cars declined “significantly” or “to some extent”.
But many analysts predicted Washington may still raise tariffs, which currently stand at 2.5 percent on Japanese autos and a 25 percent tariff on trucks.
Asked about the negative impact from the US-China trade friction on Japan, 25 of 34 economists projected it would be “very significant” or “significant,” the poll found.
Economic growth in Japan likely slowed in the July-September quarter to an annualized 0.5 percent due partly to natural disasters, analysts said, but the lull will be temporary.
The core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, is expected to rise 0.9 percent this fiscal year and at the same rate – excluding effects of a planned sales tax hike – next year.
Most economists forecast the Bank of Japan will start unwinding its ultra-loose monetary policy if it decides to change its policy, while only a few expect the bank could adopt additional easing steps, the poll found.
Either way, most economists polled predicted it will likely be sometime in 2020 or later when the BOJ will make its next move.”
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