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In line with the unanimous consensus, analysts at TD Securities expect the NBH to keep all its policy rates on hold at today’s Monetary Council (MC) meeting.

Key Quotes

“August CPI inflation was slightly disappointing, coming out at 3.4% Y/Y, unchanged from July, while the consensus was looking for a fall to 3.3%. But the MC is unlikely to be too concerned about this as core inflation excluding indirect taxes fell to 2.2% Y/Y in August from a prior 2.4%, the lowest level since May of last year.”

“At today’s meeting the MC should have the forecasts from the September Inflation Report to hand, but we do not expect any significant changes to their inflation forecasts. At the June meeting the MC adopted a slightly less dovish stance, signaling that the current loose monetary policy was not expected to be maintained over the whole 5-8 quarter forecast period. But at today’s meeting the MC will see no particular reason to change its current loose policy stance yet and will maintain its current program of unconventional measures.”

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