The International Energy Agency (IEA) is out with its monthly oil market report, maintaining the oil demand growth estimates for 2019 and 2020 at 1 mln bpd and 1.2 mln bpd respectively.
Additional Points:
Global oil demand rose by 900,000 bpd year on year in Q3 2019 in the highest annual growth in a year
Nearly three quarters of demand occurred in china while reduced economic momentum sapped OECD consumption.
OECD oil demand set to fall by 75,000 bpd in 2019 in first annual decline since 2014.
Global oil supply fell 1.2 mln bpd in Nov year on year to 101 mln bpd.
Q4 2019 throughput will be flat year on year, 2020 throughput growth estimate revised down to 1 mln bpd.
Global oil supply held steady in November as higher US, North Sea and Canada output offset by Saudi cuts
OPEC set to pump around 29.3 mln bpd in January based on full compliance to new pact.
Projected OPEC output still 700,000 bpd above q1 2020 demand for its crude and 1 mln bpd above Q2 demand
Even if OPEC+ strictly followed pact, only 530,000 bpd of crude oil would be withdrawn from market compared to November.
2020 non-OPEC supply set to expand by 2.1 mln bpd on lower output from OPEC’s allies, Brazil, Ghana and US.
Despite OPEC+ pact and reduced non-OPEC supply growth, global oil inventories could rise by 700,000 bpd in Q1 2020.
OECD oil stocks fell by 32.5 mln barrels in oct to 2.904 bln barrels, 2.9 mln below 5-year average.
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