In its latest World Economic Outlook Update, released this Monday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained it’s 2018 and 2019 global growth forecast at 3.9%, same as April, but sees risks shifting further to the downside due to an increased likelihood of escalating and sustained trade conflicts.
Key points:
“¢ If tariff threats are realized, global growth could be 0.5% below current projections.
“¢ US exports are especially vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs.
“¢ US growth for 2018 unchanged at 2.9%.
“¢ China growth for 2018 unchanged at 6.6%.
“¢ Growth forecasts slightly lowered for Euro-zone, Britain, Japan, Brazil and India.
“¢ Euro-zone 2018 growth estimate lowered to 2.2% from 2.4%.
“¢ Higher forecasts for Middle-East and Pakistan were largely on the back of higher oil prices.
“¢ Financial markets seem ‘broadly complacent’ to global risks.
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