According to analysts at ANZ, India’s high frequency indicators are clearly points to persistent weakness in private consumption and part of the softness in domestic demand is being reflected in weaker import growth.
“Manufacturing growth is also a concern with the slowdown seen since November 2018 extending into February. The easing in March’s PMI numbers across manufacturing and services validate this. Inflation has clearly bottomed out. However, the gap between rural and urban CPI continued to widen.”
“While most is in red, not all is bleak. There is a clear uptrend in credit growth since November last year. March witnessed the second month of net portfolio inflows ahead of the general election which is already underway. While this is positive for markets, it is only when inflows are sustained can we say that a recovery is in the works.”
“Lastly, the unemployment rate has come off in March thanks to an uptick in urban employment levels. However, rural employment dipped further likely due to lower job creation.”