Analysts at Nomura note that the Tokyo core CPI (all items ex fresh food) for September 2018 was up 1.0% y-y.
Key Quotes
“The rise in core CPI was 0.1ppt higher than the August inflation reading, and came in above the median Bloomberg consensus forecast of a rise of 0.9%. The BOJ’s preferred measure of core-core inflation (which excludes fresh food and energy) showed prices in Tokyo to be up 0.7% y-y in September, for a rise 0.1ppt steeper than that in August.”
“Setting aside the more volatile categories, higher prices across a wide range of goods contributed to higher inflation in Tokyo in September.”
“Beginning in the spring of 2018, the core inflation rate edged downward, pulled down in particular by lower prices for home appliances and other consumer durables. Prices for final goods / consumer durables in the corporate goods price index (CGPI), after falling by 2.1% y-y in July, fell by a smaller 1.7% in August (the most recent month for which data is available), and we have been expecting consumer durables to similarly drive an eventual pick-up in CPI as well. The September data suggests that inflation has begun picking up a little sooner than we had anticipated.”
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