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Analysts at Nomura are forecasting nominal export growth of 6.7% y-o-y, 9.5% m-o-m in April for Japanese economy while estimating a trade surplus (original series) of JPY344.9bn and a seasonally adjusted trade surplus of JPY272.3bn.  

Key Quotes

“Nominal exports in the first 20 days of April increased by 10.0% y-o-y (compared with 5.8% in the first 20 days of March) and nominal imports grew by 12.7% (compared with 9.9% in the first 20 days of March).”

“The first 20 days of April included one more business day than the same period a year earlier and the remainder of April included one less business day. We believe growth in nominal exports and imports in April as a whole is likely to be lower than that for the first 20 days of the month, as the year-on-year difference in the number of business days is likely to boost growth in the first 20 days and weigh on growth for the remainder of the month.”

“Adjusting our April nominal import/export estimates for corporate goods price index data for April (2.2% y-o-y), import prices (5.0%) and seasonal factors gives us our forecasts for real exports of 2.8% m-o-m and for real imports of 1.9%. If our forecasts are realized, full-month exports and imports will have risen by 1.5% and 0.6%, respectively, from the January-March average. Real exports (GDP-basis) rose 0.6% q-o-q in January-March (2.2% in October-December 2017), the growth rate slowed due to the effects of slower growth in overseas economies. However, we expect the April data to suggest that this weakness is temporary.”