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The Canadian dollar has many reasons to rise: oil prices are higher, the BOC raised rates, and the economy looks great. But as we have written, there is one big thing holding the C$ back. Here is the view from TD:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

TD Research discusses USD/CAD outlook and thinks that  CAD is set to remain the laggard in the G10.  

“For one thing, it still screens rich on our HFFV estimates, leaving it  vulnerable to any drawdown in the majors.  We prefer to maintain a negative bias towards CAD given the scope for NAFTA tape bombs.  

A new round of talks are set to begin this week, with policymakers adding a few extra days on the calendar to try and hammer out a deal.   Media reports indicate tensions in the discussions, leaving the room for a slip-up high.   Indeed, the risks that Trump invokes Article 2205 as a negotiating tactic is high, and we believe that markets are not properly hedged for such an outcome.  Mixed data could also be a thorn for CAD this week,” TD argues.

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