Analysts at Nomura noted the key data events from overnight.
Key Quotes:
Philly Fed survey:
“July Philly Fed survey points to continued healthy momentum in the manufacturing sector, while manufacturers continue to see concerns about tariffs. The survey’s headline index jumped to 25.7 in July, above expectations (Nomura: 20.0, Consensus: 21.5), from 19.9 in June.”
“The new orders index improved strongly to 31.4 from 17.9. While shipments index eased to 24.7 from 28.7, it is still at an elevated level. Unfilled orders rebounded to 11.0 from -2.7, implying elevated demand.”
“The prices paid index was elevated at 62.9, up from 51.8, and suggests a pickup in input costs increases. Number of employees and average workweek indices declined in July, suggesting less widespread growth in employment than in June. The indicator of future business activity eased to 29.0 in July from 34.8 in June and remains below its level before the US steel and aluminum tariffs were announced.”
“The recent softening of this measure appears consistent with the July Federal Reserve Beige Book which provided anecdotal accounts of concerns about tariffs from business respondents. Continued easing in this index may have been partly driven by some reflection of elevated trade tensions in our view and appears with the June Empire State survey, which is another early indicator of manufacturers’ sentiment for July.”
Initial jobless claims:
“Initial jobless claims declined 8k to 207k in the week ending 14 July, the lowest reading since 1969. The historically low reading bears well for the July employment report as this reading corresponds to the BLS survey week for July employment report. Continuing claims increased marginally by 8k to 1751k in the week ending 7 July, which is still a low level. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%. It appears likely that initial claims will continue to fall gradually. However, claims data can be more volatile during the summer.”
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