Analysts ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited note that the Net immigration has added more than 300,000 people to the population over the past five years, increasing demand (including for housing and infrastructure), but also adding to the pool of labour.
Key quotes:
“The migration cycle is past its peak and trending lower, but is still expected to add almost 100,000 people over the next two years. Nevertheless, softening population growth implies a shrinking impetus to growth over the years ahead and if the migration downturn is sharper than expected, economic growth could slow markedly, given growth per capita is pretty lacklustre.”
“With such a large pool of recent permanent residents who may have a higher propensity to leave should economic conditions change, the risk that net migration exacerbates the next downturn – whenever that may be – is quite real.”
“The week ahead brings NZIER’s Q3 Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, ANZ’s job ads and commodity price index, and the next GDT auction.”
“We have revised down our farmgate milk price to $6.40kg /MS and bumped up our CPI forecasts for Q3 and Q4 on higher petrol prices.”
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