In their morning note, analysts at TDS offer the details on the key economic events due on the cards for the day ahead.
Key Quotes:
“GBP The UK government heads for a repeat of last Tuesday’s political showdown, as two amendments to parliament’s “meaningful vote” on the final Brexit deal are voted on in the House of Commons. The “Grieve amendment” gives parliament some say in directing Brexit negotiations if it rejects the final deal later this year (perhaps ensuring a softer Brexit), while the government’s watered-down amendment only gives an opportunity for parliament to “acknowledge” the situation, with no say in the negotiations (thus Brexit can be whatever the government decides). Last week’s vote on the Grieve amendment looked like it was going to pass, but promises by the Prime Minister of a compromise at the last minute held the Tory “rebels” back. The promised compromise did not materialize, however, and the government is taking a gamble that its softer version will have bought enough rebel support to pass. This is likely the case, meaning the Grieve amendment will be defeated.
EUR The ECB’s Sintra conference continues, with the key panel coming up this afternoon beginning at 2:30pm BST with Draghi, Powell, Kuroda, and Lowe.
USD Chairman Powell will participate in a 9:30 ET panel discussion on monetary policy with Draghi, Kuroda, and Lowe at the ECB’s Sintra Conference. Looking to the data, the market expects the Q1 current account deficit to narrow to $128.2bn while existing home sales for May are expected to rise 1.1% to an annualized 5.52m units.
BRL We expect the BCB to remain on hold, but sound a more hawkish tone against a strained BRL. We foresee that for the time being, and at current levels of BRL, the BCB will prefer to address FX weakness with its swap program rather than with interest rates, given lack of external deficit or funding issues, and the very large output gap in the face of repressed inflation. Brazil’s issues are more due to domestic factors (see: Brazil’s Fiscal Risk Premium On the Rise ), rather than the external environment, which suggests caution on a rate hiking cycle for the BCB, contrary to what the DI market has priced.”
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