Key events ahead for Monday: US June retail sales are up – Westpac

Analysts at Westpac Banking Corporation came with their outlook for the key events ahead.

Key Quotes:

“Australia’s calendar is quiet, with the regional calendar dominated by China data. At 12pmSyd/10am local we see China’s Q2 GDP along with the June month activity data. Headline GDP is so politically sensitive that major surprises appear to be unacceptable, with local media offering guidance on the likely outcome weeks in advance. The median forecast on Bloomberg is 6.7%yr after 6.8% in Q1. The actual result has been within 0.1ppt of the Bloomberg median every quarter since Q2 2015.

China June industrial production is seen easing from 6.8%yr to 6.5% while retail sales is expected to tick up from the unexpectedly soft 8.5%yr in May (lowest since the 1990s) to 8.8%. Changes to the retail sales survey have made y/y comparisons difficult. Fixed asset investment growth is seen around 6%yr.

Japanese markets are closed for a holiday (Marine Day).

The week’s US data highlight is today, when we see June retail sales. Consensus is for further strength: 0.6%mth total, 0.5% ex-autos & gasoline and 0.3% on the ‘control group’ which most closely matches the personal consumption expenditure component of GDP. Forecasts of Q2 GDP (due 27 July) will be sensitive to this report.

Also on the slate is the July manufacturing survey from the NY Fed (Empire State) which should remain very much on the bullish side.”