Analysts at TD Securities offered their outlook for today’s out for the developed market currencies, (DMs).
Key Quotes:
“AUD RBA Assistant Governor Kent speaks on “Money Creation” to an RBA event for educators, so unlikely to be much for the markets.
JPY After the tweak in policy in July the BoJ has shown little inclination towards further changes anytime soon. Inflation is edging higher though still a considerable way off the 2% target. As such we think this meeting will be largely uneventful. However, we think the BOJ could introduce additional flexibility as soon as Q1-2019 insofar as the output gap continues to remain decisively positive.
“GBP Inflation for August is released this morning, and we see slight downside risks, with a moderation in both headline and core inflation, with core inflation falling from 1.9% y/y to 1.7% y/y (mkt: 1.8%) and headline falling from 2.5% y/y to 2.3% y/y (mkt: 2.4%). Previously-announced energy price hikes in August and September will complicate the headline inflation picture somewhat, with risks skewed to the upside, though ultimately this will just be a timing issue. Pass-through from the weaker pound is abating, and we expect core inflation to hover near current levels for the remainder of the year. BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane delivers a speech to mark the Central Bank of Estonia’s 100th anniversary at 9am BST.
USD Housing starts and building permits are expected to show some recovery in August, with TD looking for starts to rise by 6.3% m/m to a 1.242m unit pace (market: 1.238m). The market looks for permits to see a more modest 0.5% increase while the Q2 current account deficit, the only other data release, is seen narrowing to $103.4bn.”
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