Analysts at Nomura offered a recap of the NY session’s key data events and offered their GDP tracker update.
Key Quotes:
“Initial jobless claims: Initial jobless claims increased 11k to 234k in the week ended 19 May, a still-low level. The four-week moving average ticked up 6k to 220k. Continuing claims increased 29k to 1741k for the week ending 12 May as the four-week moving average declined 23k to 1752k, the lowest reading since 1973. Consistent with our labor market outlook, we expect these indicators to decline further.”
“Existing home sales: Existing home sales fell 2.5% q-o-q saar to 5.46mn saar in April, below expectations (Nomura: +0.4% to 5.62mn, Consensus: -0.9% 5.55mn), from 5.60mn saar in March. Single-family home sales fell 3.0% m-o-m, driven by broad-based weakness across four Census regions. The National Association of Realtors attributed the lack of listings for sale to weak sales activity. It is possible that homeowners remain hesitant to sell in expectation of rising rates and thereby holding back increases in supply. In addition, sales of condos and co-ops were up 1.6% m-o-m. The number of months in available supply at the current sales pace increased to 4.0 months, up from 3.5 months. The pickup was likely driven by slower sales in April.”
“GDP tracking update: Weaker-than-expected existing home sales in April suggest lower brokers’ commissions in Q2. Thus, after rounding, we lowered our Q2 real GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to 3.4% q-o-q saar.”
Share
