Analysts at Nomura suggest that their Bank of Korea signal indices (NBSI and NBSI+) are more positive (suggesting a greater likelihood of a hike) in October.
Key Quotes
“We expect the BOK to leave rates unchanged at 1.50% at its 18 October meeting, with one or two dissenting vote(s) for a 25bp hike.”
“We expect the BOK to clearly signal a hike at the 30 November meeting, allowing the public to prepare ahead of time.”
“The higher NBSI and NBSI+ readings are in line with our assigned 40%, 50% and 10% probabilities to a 25bp rate hike in October, November and January or thereafter, respectively. That said, our BOK policy expectation is a close call.”
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