In a market wrap, analysts at TD Securities explained that the North American session was fairly quiet with equities and FX broadly unchanged (S&P 500: -0.14%; DXY: -0.07%), although sectors diverged with tech outperforming (Nasdaq: +0.32%) and materials underperforming (-3.4%).
“US yields edged off the recent highs with 10Y yields some 3bps lower, driving the 2s-10s spread back to 31.5 bps.”
“Crude oil (Brent: +1.13%) rallied as the market faded the weakness on reports that the US was set to grant exemptions on the looming Iranian sanctions.”
What we’re watching in markets
“FX markets should remain fixated over developments in the Treasury space. We have noted the peculiarities of its back-up which looks more technical and less fundamental in nature. There are several indications that USD/JPY has formed a top, with our FV estimate pointing towards a recalibration towards 111. Given the equity betas, we think this could also feature rather prominently in CADJPY.
There were early signs of consolidation in the rates market with bonds opening the week on a stronger foot; one day doesn’t make a trend, but we think that last week’s sell-off mostly technically driven and yields are broadly attractive here.”
“Brent crude bounced back to the top of the recent range, supported by strong fundamentals ahead of Iranian sanctions. We maintain that dips lower in crude prices should be bought as any further disruptions could trigger an outsized price reaction.”