Analysts at Westpac Banking Corporation, (Westpac), noted that markets were predictably quiet given the US holiday and limited European calendar, though the euro popped higher on a Bloomberg sources story on the ECB.
Key Quotes:
“EUR/USD initially fell from 1.1680 to 1.1631, before rebounding to 1.1675 after a Bloomberg story cited anonymous ECB policymakers who are uneasy that markets are not pricing an interest rate hike before Dec 2019.”
“The ECB members apparently think Sep or Oct 2019 is a likely time. There was no indication of whether these policymakers are simply hawks. Recall that the ECB’s official guidance is that rates should be on hold “at least through the summer of 2019.”
“USD/JPY wandered in a 110.30-110.55 range.”
“AUD/USD reversed yesterday’s retail sales data-led gain to 0.7425, slipping to 0.7380.”
“NZD drifted sideways just above 0.6760.”
“AUD/NZD traded quietly around 1.0920.”
“GBP/USD bounced off 1.3175 as UK’s June service (55.1, expected unchanged at 54.0) and composite PMIs lifted more than expected on the back of “robust and accelerated new work” and survey firm Markit suggested that this “opens the door for an August rate hike” (which is already 73% priced in). Sterling heads into Sydney trade around 1.3230.”
“While the cash US treasury market was closed, 10yr treasury futures yields rose slightly from 2.83% to 2.84%. Fed fund futures yields continued to price 1 ½ more hikes in 2018.”
“In Europe, German 2yr bond yields rose 2bp from -0.67% to -0.65% after the Bloomberg report.”
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