Market wrap: recovery in the Turkish lira was of little comfort – Westpac

Analysts at Westpac explained that the further recovery in the Turkish lira was of little comfort to commodities or to equity markets in Europe and the US, with broad-based losses.  

Key Quotes:

“US retail sales and manufacturing sentiment were strong. AUD/USD held up well given the global mood, edging back to 0.7240. Today’s calendar highlight is Australia’s July employment data, with UK July retail sales and  minor  US releases also due.”

“The Turkish lira stabilised (up about 7%) but other emerging currencies suffered – USD/CNY up from 6.90 to 6.94 – highest since Jan 2017 – and the South African rand down 2.2%. Indeed, for all the focus on TRY,  broad  market sentiment is heading elsewhere, with equities under pressure and sharp losses in commodities such as copper -3.5% and Brent crude oil -2.3%. Gold printed lows since Jan 2017.”

“EUR/USD initially fell to 1.1301 – the lowest since July 2017 – before rebounding to 1.1355. GBP/USD fell as low as 1.2662 before trimming losses. UK July CPI matched expectations, flat on the month, up 2.5% over the year, with the core rate 1.9%yr.”

“USD/JPY fell from 111.40 to as low as 110.43, the safe-haven yen outperforming all the majors. AUD/USD recovered from 0.7203 in Sydney trade – the lowest since January 2017 – to 0.7240 as the US dollar lost momentum. NZD similarly bounced off 0.6545 – the lowest since February 2016 – to 0.6565. AUD/NZD ranged between 1.1000 and 1.1040.”

“Q3 US data portrayed a solid growth picture. US retail sales rose 0.5% in July, though the prior month was revised lower to show a more subdued 0.2%, from an initial estimate of 0.5%. Nine of thirteen sales categories posted gains, underscoring breadth. The retail “control group”, which feeds straight into GDP calculations, was also solid at 0.5% though the prior was revised down to a small decline (0.1%).”

“The NY Fed Empire State manufacturing survey beat expectations and rose to its highest levels this year, hitting 25.6, up from 22.6 in July. Overall, the first of the August business surveys continue to show little to no impact from rising trade tensions. US industrial production was more subdued, growing just 0.1% in July (0.3% expected)  though  the prior month was bumped up sharply, to 1.0% from 0.6%. The NAHB’s homebuilder survey moderated from 68 in Jul to 67 in Aug, in line with expectations.”