Analysts at Westpac noted that Sterling slumped on a UK recession warning and the euro was hurt by soft Q3 GDP data but AUD/USD benefited from the rebound in US equities, returning to 0.7100.
Key Quotes:
“Commodity prices remained skittish on trade concerns. Today’s jam-packed calendar includes Australia Q3 CPI, the BoJ policy decision, China Oct manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Oct CPI, US Q3 employment cost index and Oct ADP private payrolls.”
Currencies and macro themes
“EUR/USD fell from 1.1385 to 1.1345, hurt by disappointing GDP data – see below. GBP was the day’s underperformer, falling from 1.2810 to 1.2696 – the lowest since mid-August – amid Brexit concerns. Rating agency Standard & Poor’s said that the chance of a no-deal Brexit has increased, and that scenario would cause a recession and trigger a rating downgrade.
USD/JPY benefited from the improved US equity mood and accompanying higher yields, rising from 112.30 in the Sydney morning to 3 week highs around 113. Outperformer AUD/USD extended earlier gains, from 0.7060 early Sydney to 0.7100/20 in NY. NZD also performed well, up 0.5% over the day to 0.6550. AUD/NZD reduced some of Monday’s losses, up 0.25% on the day, to 1.0840. USD/CNH hovered around 6.9700/50.
USD/CAD was torn between the fall in oil prices and upbeat testimony from Bank of Canada’s Poloz and Wilkins, chopping around the low 1.30s.
The Eurozone economy slowed sharply in Q3. GDP grew just 0.2% (0.4% expected), the weakest quarter in five years, taking the annual rate down to a subdued 1.7% from 2.2%. Admittedly, temporary factors such as a sharp fall in German auto production as new emission standards were implemented depressed activity but business surveys suggest underlying momentum is slowing into Q4. The European Commission’s economic, business, industrial and services confidence gauges all deteriorated more than expected in October, edging down to their weakest readings since mid-2017, underscoring a more cautious mood in the Eurozone.
The US Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to an 18-year high of 137.9 in October from a downwardly revised 135.3, a solid labour market and tax cuts more than countering the stock market rout and elevated trade tensions. Both present conditions and expectations rose while confidence about the labour market hit its highest levels since 2001.
Interest rates
The US 10yr treasury yield firmed slightly from 3.10% to 3.12%, the 2yr yield up from 2.83% to 2.84%. Fed fund futures yields priced the chance of another rate hike in December at 75%.”
Share
