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The median chance of the EU and the UK failing to reach an agreement on trade at the end of Brexit transition period rose from 30% in August to 40%, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

Additional takeaways

“UK economy to expand 15.8% this quarter from Q2; 3.4% in Q4 (15.1%; 3.6% in August poll).”

“UK economy to contract 10.0% in 2020; grow 6.1% in 2021 (-9.7%; +6.2% in August poll).”

“Bank of England to keep bank rate at 0.10% through 2022 (same as August poll).”

Market reaction

This report doesn’t seem to be having a significant impact on the British pound’s valuation against its rivals. As of writing, the GBP/USD pair was up 0.07% on the day at 1.2995.