Monetary Matters – FED, ECB and BOE movements – MM #131

Politics stood out in 2016 and will have a role in 2017 as well. Nevertheless, politicians have central banks between them and markets. We focus on three central banks: the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the BOE.

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1. Fed – hike speculation: Fiscal stimulus could lead the FED, but they could also focus  on the data, being data dependent and officially independent.  1, 2 or 3 hikes? It also depends on the composition of the voting members and the staff members, which have different opinions. Wage growth is important.
2. ECB – Draghi drag: Draghi wants to drag down the euro without doing anything. He may have some time to think during the first half of the year, but things are  never that stable.
3. BOE – can they go both ways?: Inflation is higher in the UK. So, should Carney raise rates? Not so fast. The stagflation conundrum  is giving them a headache.
4. Preview: Apart from Trump’s first week in office, we get initial GDP figures from the US and the UK among other figures.

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Trade safely!