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Analysts at Natixis study if there is an equity market bubble in technology shares in the US and conclude that while the forward PER looks high given the poor earnings performance in 2020 and 2021, the long-term earnings trend justifies a higher PER than the actual PER. Only the valuations of Amazon and Facebook are absurd. 

Key quotes

“The PERs of Google, Apple and Microsoft are 30 to 35, which is high but the PERs of Facebook and Amazon are huge, 130 to 250!. We do not expect any earnings growth in 2020-2021 though the long-term earnings trend is strongly growing: a threefold increase to more than 18 in 10 years.”

“In Nasdaq 100, PER has risen drastically from 25 to 30 with zero expected earnings growth in 2021, which explains the increase in the PER. Earnings multiplied by 4.5 in 10 years.”

“Nasdaq excluding GAFAM shows a forward PER of 22, which is quite low, markedly lower than that of the total Nasdaq. Earnings are set to stagnate in 2021 but have been doubled from 2015 to 2020.”