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National Bank of Canada’s analysis team suggest that the EUR has been under pressure so far this year due to weak economic data, and is unlikely to get much help from ECB which is set to present downgraded forecasts for the Eurozone’s GDP growth & inflation at its March meeting.

Key Quotes

“Potential disruptions to trade flows could also hurt the EUR. The possibility of a “hard” Brexit, whereby the UK leaves the European Union without a deal on March 29th, & additional tariffs imposed by U.S. on Eurozone exports cannot be ruled out.”

“Those risks have increased in recent weeks and we have, as a result, lowered our targets for EUR/USD.”