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Bloomberg News reports that New government modelling shows Canada could see coronavirus cases rise as much as 15% by the middle of the month.

Key notes

Covid-19 cases could rise to between 97,990 and 107,454 cases by June 15, according to data from the Public Health Agency of Canada released on Thursday. Current cases of 93,441 are not far from the lower band but 15% away from the upper band. Deaths are seen at between 7,700 to 9,400, up from 7,543 now.

Health Minister Patty Hajdu said she supported taking regional considerations into account when engineering the economy’s reopening, which falls under the provinces’ control.

“It doesn’t take very long for an outbreak to gain some steam,” said Canada’s health czar at a technical briefing in Ottawa. “I think those are the kinds of considerations that need to be made at the local public health unit.”

“I think models show it doesn’t really matter where you are, if you aren’t really careful about restarting the social and work contacts you might expect to get a resurgence,” Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam told reporters.

Market implications

Until there the swells amount to full-on second waves in spikes of new cases, markets are happy to trade the V-shape recovery narratives. Modellings have so fallen short of accurate data findings so far.