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Next labour market reports on Tuesday at 22:45 GMT, covering the March quarter, will capture only a fraction of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and New Zealand’s temporary lockdown in response to it, per Westpac Institutional Bank.

Key quotes

“We expect a modest rise in the unemployment rate from 4.0% to 4.3%, jobs growth close to flat, and a continuation of the momentum in wage growth that we saw last year.” 

“It’s unlikely that the market will put much weight on these surveys, as they will provide little guidance as to how bad things could get in the coming months.”

“Even with Government support measures we expect the recovery to be gradual, with unemployment still above 7% by the end of next year.”