NFP: We expect readings below 200K for the remainder of 2019 – Wells Fargo

Analysts at Wells Fargo, forecast a reading of 170K in non-farm payroll for next Friday, slightly below the 160K of market consensus and under the 224K reading of last month.  

Key Quotes:  

“Last month, nonfarm payrolls increased 224,000, though May hiring was downgraded by 3,000. Transportation & warehousing employment growth has been trending lower as trade-related headwinds affect hiring at home. Meanwhile, domestic-oriented hiring rose; the education & health and professional & business services sectors added 61K and 51K, respectively. That said, retail trade saw its fifth straight month of payroll declines and has decreased by 56.4K since the beginning of the year. This month also saw an uptick in the unemployment rate to 3.7% due to more participants entering the labor force than getting hired. Initial jobless claims trended lower so far in July, averaging 5.6% lower than June.”

“Even without a further escalation in the trade war, we expect a sub two-hundred trend for payrolls for the remainder of 2019 as uncertainty weighs on hiring. We expect employers added 170,000 net new jobs in July.”