Analysts at Nomura explained that they do not expect a notable change in the trajectory of US-China trade, nor do they expect a sizable change in the total US trade deficit.
Key Quotes:
“The Trump administration could very well reevaluate its position vis-a-vis China’s trade policies at some point in the not too distant future.”
Consequently, there will likely be an ongoing risk that the Trump administration will, at some point, reengage in protectionist policies. Despite the recent progress in US-China trade talks, risks remain.”
“We continue to expect the US, Canada and Mexico to reach agreement on revisions to NAFTA. However, if such an agreement is not reached soon, it may not be possible to take advantage of socalled “fast track” authority in the current Congress.”
“The prospect of a prolonged process of Congressional approval could complicate, and delay, NAFTA negotiations, thereby raising the risk that negotiations could fail.”
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