Analyst at Danske Bank Aila Mihr gives her views on SEK and NOK amidst the ongoing situation around Italy.
Key Quotes
“For the Scandies, we stress that the situation in relation to Italy today is somewhat different from the 2011-12 euro debt crisis, when the Scandies were regarded as semi-safe havens amid euro break-up fears”.
“Firstly, we see both the risk of contagion from Italy and of an ‘Italexit’ as very small. Second, notably for SEK, the rate differential to EUR is now much less attractive as the Riksbank has largely mirrored ECB policy in recent years”.
“Hence, it is likely to mainly be to the extent that this weighs on risk sentiment that Italy will affect NOK and SEK near term”.
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