Analysts at Nomura expect a solid 175k increase in nonfarm payroll employment during October, consistent with continued labor market strength in an economy operating above potential.
Key Quotes:
“We expect average hourly earnings (AHE) to increase 0.2% m-o-m, held down in part by calendar effects.”
“However, base effects are likely to push up the y-o-y rate 0.3pp to 3.1% as the sharp decline in AHE last October drops out of the calculation.”
“After falling 0.2pp in September, we expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.7%.”