The US-Iran tensions will peak out in the next two weeks because the Islamic nation is too weak for a protracted confrontation, according to Sebastien Galy, macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management, which has over $250 billion under management.
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For longer-term investors, there are no large implications aside from taking profit on their U.S. equity position. For medium-term investors, it means increasing their long yen position as a global hedge.
The Cboe Volatility Index, a gauge of expected U.S. price swings known as the VIX, remains well below 20, a sign that investors aren’t too worried just yet.
We think this is a transitory shock as Iran is too weak for a full confrontation.
The US attacked an airport in Baghdad on Friday, killing a top Iranian commander. Tehran criticized the move and has vowed retaliation. The heightened geopolitical uncertainty sent globalrisk assets lower and safe havens like yen higher.
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