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Joachim Bernhardsen, Research Analyst at Nordea Markets, notes that Norges Bank kept rates on hold today as expected and confirmed the signals from the monetary policy report in June: The key rate will be raised in September.

Key Quotes

“Today’s monetary policy meeting was an interim meeting without a new rate forecast nor press conference. The main take away is that the outlook for the economy and inflation has not changed much since June. As such the rate path presented in June is still in play.”

“In its summary of incoming data from the June meeting Norges Bank judge the economic development among the trading partners as expected, all though the global risk sentiment is somewhat more shaky. The labor market is as expected while underlying inflation has been a tad higher. The Nok is also judged as somewhat weaker.”

“Going forward the main “surprise trigger” stems mainly from the NOK. If NOK remains at current levels going into the September meeting, it would warrant a significant upward revision of the rate path, implying a December hike, all else equal.”