Analysts at ANZ explained that CPI releases often generate plenty of interest; it is a major piece of economic data after all.
Key Quotes:
“However, today’s release for Q2 has more interest than normal. That is in part because of the point we are in the economic cycle (where growth momentum looks to be slowing, and the implications that has for the inflation outlook), partly because the RBNZ shifted a little more dovish last month, and partly because there is a wide variety of views on what the figures will show (the Bloomberg consensus has a large range of 0.1% to 0.7% for quarterly headline inflation).”
“And ANZ is the outlier in that range, where we see the risks skewed towards a soft outcome (we expect a 0.1% q/q lift). While we can’t speak for others, one of the rationales behind our expectation is the soft signal provided by our Monthly Inflation Gauge, which at face value pointed to a fall in non-tradables prices in the quarter. We haven’t gone as aggressively as that, but it has still dominated out thinking. Certainly a result in line with our views would see the market further entertain the idea of an RBNZ rate cut and leave the NZD on the defensive, even though market positioning remains extremely short.”
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