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Annette Beacher, Chief Asia-Pacific Macro Strategist at TD Securities, notes that New Zealand’s June quarter CPI rose by +0.4%/q, matching TD’s forecast and a pip below mkt at +0.5%.

Key Quotes

“More importantly, the annual rate of 1.5%/y matched that expected by the RBNZ as published in the May Monetary Policy Statement (MPS).”

“Inflation remains below the RBNZ’s 2% mid-point target, and has been for the last six years or so.”

“We remain of the view that the next move is up for the cash rate as capacity constraints combined with household-friendly fiscal stimulus (transfer payments and higher wages) point to a substantial pickup in inflation in due course.”

“We see inflation reaching 2% by end-2019, a year ahead of the RBNZ, hence stick with +25bp in May 2019 to 2%.”