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Analysts at TD Securities suggest that by taking the evidence from monthly trade and the terms of trade reports, they are looking for New Zealand’s December quarter exports to shrink by -0.7%/q and imports to rise by +1.4%/q (both sa) for a December quarter merchandise trade deficit of -$NZ1.2b (nsa).

Key Quotes

“Exports of dairy, meat and logs all fell while fruit had a strong quarter. After accounting for a wide invisibles deficit, we expect the current account deficit to widen to -$NZ3.7b, or -3.9% of GDP (mkt also -3.9%, prior -3.6%). We pencil in net exports adding +0.1% pts to Dec qtr GDP.”