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Analysts at ANZ point out that New Zealand’s seasonally adjusted net migration monthly inflows slipped 460 to 4,930 in April, with two thirds of the decline driven by fewer arrivals and one third by higher departures.

Key Quotes

“The annual net inflow is now sitting just over 67,000, down from nearly 68,000 in March and a peak of 72,400 in July last year. Overall, April figures reaffirm our view that the net migration cycle is gradually easing.”

Long-term arrivals fell by 310 to 10,500 (sa), below the 12-month average of around 10,900.The monthly decline was   driven entirely by a 336 person drop in non-New Zealand and non-Australian citizen arrivals, with New Zealand and Australian citizen arrivals up a touch. Arrivals on residency visas continued to trend downwards (-14.3% y/y), with higher annual work visas providing an offset. Student visas slipped a touch and are down 0.6% y/y.”

Monthly long-term departures rose 150 to 5,570 (sa), above their 12-month average of 5,200, owing to a pick-up in New Zealand citizen departures.”

“Visitor arrivals slipped 1.3% m/m (sa),  and are down 1.7% y/y (sa), suggesting tourism activity remains at a high level, but is facing growth headwinds.”

Strong migration-led population growth has been a key driver of economic activity recently.”