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Liz Kendall, Senior Economist at ANZ, estimates that seasonally adjusted New Zealand’s nationwide house sales fell 9.4% m/m in September, with a 6% fall in Auckland and a 10% fall in the rest of the country, with falls across all regions.

Key Quotes

“Sales can be volatile on a monthly basis, but this comes on the back of softening in recent months. Nationwide house sales are down 16% since February.”

“According to earlier  data, listings have also increased and were up 13% m/m in September. It’s possible that investors are moving out of the market in light of policy changes.”

“The REINZ house price index increased 0.5% m/m in September to round out Q3 with a 0.7% q/q gain (3-month average). Annual house price inflation was steady at 4.3% y/y (3mma).”

“House prices increased 0.5% m/m in Auckland, following recent declines, with annual house price inflation running at 0.8% y/y (3mma).”

“The housing market is being buffeted by a number of forces and we may see more volatility than usual in coming months. In particular, the imposition of the foreign buyer ban has the potential to create some bumps.”