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Analysts at ANZ note that New Zealand’s permanent and long-term net migration monthly inflows fell by 120 to 4,720 in July (seasonally adjusted), with arrivals flat and departures lifting.

Key Quotes

“July’s print marks one year since the annual inflow peaked at 74,200. At 63,800, annual net inflows have moderated almost 12% over the past year, but remain high.”

Arrivals were flat  at 10,600 (sa) in the month, with little change in the composition.  Two thirds of the 120 person lift in departures  (to 5880)  was driven by New Zealanders, of which, 1960 went to Australia.”

Arrivals on residency visas continue to trend lower  (-18.7% y/y), with work visas continuing to provide a partial offset (up 2.5% y/y).”

Short-term visitor arrivals rose 0.6% m/m (sa),  (+1.4% y/y). Tourist numbers remain elevated overall, particularly from China.”

How rapidly the migration cycle will ease is a key source of uncertainty for the economic outlook going forward.”