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New Zealand’s permanent and long-term net migration monthly inflows fell by 240 to 4,840 in June (on a seasonally adjusted basis), as arrivals dipped and departures lifted – both providing confirmation that the cycle is continuing to ease, notes the research team at ANZ.

Key Quotes

“The annual net inflow is now sitting just below 65,000, down from 66,200 in May and 10.2% below the peak of 72,400 in July last year.”

Permanent and long-term arrivals fell by 180 to 10,600 (sa), remaining below the 12-month average of around 10,850.”

Monthly permanent and long-term departures rose 50 to 5,750 (sa), above their 12-month average of 5,300.”

Short-term visitor arrivals fell 3.5% m/m (sa),  but were up 5.1% y/y, with tourist numbers remaining elevated, particularly from China.”

We expect gradual easing in the migration cycle to continue,  as departures continue to pick up (in part reflecting the natural cycling out of previous arrivals) and with arrivals growth continuing to moderate.”