With more aggressive monetary easing on the cards compared to China, strategists at ANZ Bank expect NZD/CNH to retest the last low, and breaking 4.00 by end-2020 is possible.
Key quotes
“Despite success in containing COVID-19, the threat of a negative OCR (possibly next year) and potential QE purchases of foreign assets are significant headwinds for NZD. The kiwi will also be impacted if risk appetite sours and global data continues to shock to the downside.”
“On the top side, 4.40-4.45 is a key resistance window which we expect to hold. We favour turning short in the cross on rallies from hereon.”
“For buyers, immediate support is 4.22, to be followed by 4.17 and then 4.05, which could be reached in late 2020.”
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