Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, suggests that the difficulty at this time is finding the right currency against which to sell the NZD.
Key Quotes
“The broad correction lower in the USD in recent days in the context of a rebound in global asset markets may extend in the near term, and NZD/USD is a long for the ride.”
“If the USD is not best option to buy against the NZD, others we have considered are SEK and CAD where rate hikes are expected relatively soon. However, SEK seems far removed from NZD, and it has rallied significantly in recent weeks as rate hike expectation build. At this stage, the Riksbank is still sending mixed messages, and core inflation is not clearly rising. NAFTA negotiations are still in the balance for CAD. Inflation and retail sales on Friday are a near-term risk for CAD.”
“AUD/NZD also looks relatively good value against yield and commodity price spreads. If tariff risks remain on the back-burner and housing market and political risks in Australia do not flare up, the AUD might out-perform the NZD in the near-term.”
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