NZD/USD: 200-day SMA challenges Bears, all eyes on Aussie retail sales, trade balance
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NZD/USD: 200-day SMA challenges Bears, all eyes on Aussie retail sales, trade balance

  • NZD/USD remains near 0.6770 on early Thursday.
  • Pessimism surrounding trading partners please bears due to lack of big domestic data/events.
  • 200-day SMA level of 0.6745 becomes crucial support with 0.6800 likely immediate resistance.

NZD/USD trades little changed around 0.6770 during the early Asian session on Thursday. Sellers dominate trade sentiment as pessimism surrounding New Zealand’s largest trading partners, namely Australia and China, keep haunting Kiwi traders. With little on domestic data, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could take clues from Australian retail sales and trade balance while following updates on the US-China trade talks.

Be it disappointing purchasing manager index (PMI) from China or soft Australian GDP, needless to mention about growing calls for RBA rate-cuts and downward expectations of Chinese GDP, New Zealand’s both the largest trading partners flash negative signals to buyers. As a result, the NZD/USD pair refrains from taking advantage of less disappointing domestic data, like GDT price index, but continued being drawn by the bears. Though, 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near 0.6745, confined the pair’s further downside.

It should also be noted that latest data/events from the US, namely ADP employment change and Beige Book, maintained their support to the US Dollar while greenback bulls await further details on the US-China trade deal.

While Friday’s New Zealand manufacturing sales become the only domestic data on hand, investors may keep following updates from Australia’s economic calendar and what happens on the trade negotiation between the US and China.

At the Aussie front, January month trade balance and retail sales could offer immediate push. Forecasts suggest a 3,000M trade surplus against 3,681M prior whereas retail sales may growth +0.3% versus -0.4% previous contraction.

At the trade front, the US President Donald Trump continued praising progress on their trade talks with China with lesser details. Also, much anticipated Trump-Xi meet near March 27 isn’t yet confirmed and challenge the trade optimists.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair needs to slip under 200-day SMA level of 0.6745 in order to revisit the February lows near 0.6720, a break of which can recall 0.6700 and 0.6685 on the chart.

On the upside, 50-day SMA level near 0.6800, followed by nearby descending trend-line at 0.6810, may keep restricting the pair’s immediate advances ahead of highlighting 0.6835 and 0.6850 resistances.

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