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  • NZD/USD climbed from a low of 0.6203 last week to regain the 0.63 handle.
  • Looking ahead for the week, we have a number of key events for the US.

NZD/USD is currently trading between a 21 pip range, currently at 0.6319 between a high of 0.6321 and 0.6300 having taken on the 21-DMA.  The bird has been recovering purely as the US Dollar. continues to weaken.  

NZD/USD climbed from a low of 0.6203 last week to regain the 0.63 handle as the DXY slid over 1% since the start of the month. Of course, the US data has been a weight on the US Dollar and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls did little to help the greenback’s cause.  

“Kiwi continued to find lift as the USD fell more broadly once again,” analysts at ANZ Bank explained. “Despite US labour data providing support for overall economic momentum, expectations for cuts at the October FOMC meeting were little changed as Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that the US economy faced risks. Expect offshore data to drive the kiwi in the short term.”

US unemployment rate hit a cyclical low of 3.5%

September US non-farm payrolls fell short of market expectations, rising by 136k from an upwardly revised 168k in August.

“The US unemployment rate hit a cyclical low of 3.5% in September, from 3.7% in August, and is now at a level not seen since December 1969. Meanwhile, US average hourly earnings missed expectations and came in unchanged in September (surveys expected a 0.2% m/m gain). On a yearly basis, average hourly earnings decelerated to 2.9% and are now at their lowest level since mid-2018,”

the analysts at ANZ bank explained.  

Looking ahead for the week, we have a number of key events for the US, including Fed governor Powell, speaking, the FOMC minutes and US consumer Price Index.  

NZD/USD levels

A run above the 21-DMA opens risk to the Sep highs a cent higher and beyond the 50-DMA. On the downside, the 0.62 handle to open up the downside and risk to 2009 levels.