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  • Chinese data shows a large decline in exports.  
  • Greenback eases below 97.50 ahead of employment data.
  • Markets see NFP increasing by 180K in February.

Although the Chinese data on Friday missed markets’ expectations by a wide margin on Friday, the kiwi stayed resilient against the greenback and the NZD/USD pair recovered a large portion of this week’s losses. As of writing, the pair was up 0.55% on the day at 0.6790. The trade report from China revealed exports in February declined by 20.7% in February (YoY) following January’s +9.1% reading and the trade surplus narrowed to $4.12 billion from $39.16 billion.  

The broad USD weakness is providing an additional boost to the pair as well. After refreshing its highest level of 2019 near 97.70 yesterday, the US Dollar Index reversed its course and was last down 0.1% on the day at 97.50. However, the fact that there were no fundamental catalysts that could have weighed on the greenback today, the index’s slide seems to be a technical correction of this week’s strong rally.

Later in the session, investors will be paying close attention to February nonfarm payrolls report from the U.S. Most experts expect the employment growth rate to cool down. More importantly, a stronger than expected increase in wage inflation as measured by the average hourly earnings could help the greenback gather strength and close the week on a positive note.  

  • US NFP Preview: 5 Major Banks expectations from February payrolls report.

Technical levels to watch for

NZD/USD

Trends:
       Daily SMA20:  0.6817
       Daily SMA50:  0.6799
       Daily SMA100:  0.6775
       Daily SMA200:  0.6746
Levels:
       Previous Daily High:  0.6793
       Previous Daily Low:  0.6744
       Previous Weekly High:  0.6903
       Previous Weekly Low:  0.6794
       Previous Monthly High:  0.6943
       Previous Monthly Low:  0.6719
       Daily Fibonacci 38.2%:  0.6763
       Daily Fibonacci 61.8%:  0.6774
       Daily Pivot Point S1:  0.673
       Daily Pivot Point S2:  0.6713
       Daily Pivot Point S3:  0.6681
       Daily Pivot Point R1:  0.6779
       Daily Pivot Point R2:  0.6811
       Daily Pivot Point R3:  0.6829