NZD/USD clings to 0.6350 ahead of China’s data dump

• NZD/USD holds steady around 0.6350 while waiting for China data.
• Followed commodity-linked currencies without major domestic catalysts the previous day.
• Trade headlines will keep the spotlight despite anticipated momentum through Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales numbers.

Having been the second-best major gainers, the NZD/USD pair stays modestly changed to 0.6350 at the start of Friday’s Asian session.

The Kiwi pair followed the Aussie on Thursday as a lack of domestic drivers pushed traders towards cheering the surprise decline in Australia’s seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate. The up-move also benefited from the commodity-linked currencies run-up backed by the US Dollar (USD) weakness.

The greenback remained under pressure during the previous day as a slew of downbeat statistics from the world’s largest economy continues with Industrial Production and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey joining the league in the very recent times.

Markets are now bracing for third quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from China while Industrial Production and Retail Sales will also accompany the release at 02:00 AM GMT. Forecasts suggest a downbeat GDP figure of 6.1% and 1.5% on YoY and QoQ basis respectively against 6.2% and 1.6%. However, likely improvement in Retail Sales, to 7.8% from 7.5%, and Industrial Production to 5.0% versus 4.4% prior could help maintain the upside momentum.

Despite China’s top-tier data up for publishing the Sino-US trade headlines won’t lose their importance as the key catalyst. Recently, the White House Advisor Larry Kudlow suggested more work to do as far as the deal is concerned while Chinese Commerce Ministry sounds positive about the developments in its latest comments.

Technical Analysis

While 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6366 acts as an immediate upside barrier, 0.6400 and September high nearing 0.6455 act as following resistances to watch during further advances. Alternatively, a downside break below the 21-day EMA level of 0.6315 could drag the quote back to 0.6250/40 support area.