NZD/USD: Fresh run-up eye June 2018 top on NZ Treasury comments, China Industrial Profits

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  • NZD/USD picks up bids after recently positive NZ indicators.
  • New Zealand (NZ) Treasury highlights an upside risk to economic growth backed by recent jump in retail sales.
  • China’s Industrial Profits grew 28.2% YoY in October.
  • Risk dwindle amid mixed sentiment concerning virus vaccine and Sino-American, Aussie-China tension.

NZD/USD rises to 0.7011 in the latest run-up to trim the early Friday’s losses. Backing the kiwi bulls are optimistic comments from the NZ Treasury and upbeat industrial profits data from China. In doing so, the quote ignores challenges to the risk and its largest customer Australia, mainly due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine update and China.

NZ Treasury’s weekly report cited upside risk to the GDP growth forecasts based on the latest jump in retail sales data. The report also mentioned, “Card spending has shown a steady recovery in November after some volatility, and the number of people receiving income support continues to fall.”

Elsewhere, China’s October month Industrial Profits grew 28.2% YoY versus 10.1% prior. The year-to-date figures suggest more optimism by rising to 0.7% YoY, the first positive figure in 2020.

On the negative side, China eyes anti-dumping duties on Aussie wine while chatters over Beijing stopping the Australian coal ships also weigh on the risks. Further, the Sino-American tension also intensified recently after the US levies fresh sanctions on Chinese companies over their links to the Iran missile program. Also, Chinese media’s indirect warning to US President-election Joe Biden over Taiwan heavy the risks.

It should be noted that US President Donald Trump’s promise to deliver the vaccine by next week and the UK’s push for AstraZeneca’s vaccine approval tried to placate the market bears.

Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures drop 0.20% whereas stocks in Asia-Pacific trade mixed by press time.

Moving on, risk catalysts can keep the driver’s seat amid a light calendar.

Technical analysis

The mid-2018 top surrounding 0.7050 holds the key to the further upside by NZD/USD.

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

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