A break above 0.6230 in NZD/USD should open the door to further upside, in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group.
24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday the ‘uptick in momentum could lead to NZD moving towards 0.6135’. The subsequent strong surge in NZD that sent it to a high of 0.6228 came as a surprise. The rapid rally is appears to be severely over-extended and further sustained NZD strength is unlikely for today. NZD is more likely to consolidate its gains and trade sideways at these higher levels. Expected range for today, 0.6155/0.6225.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “While we have expected a stronger NZD since early last week, we were of the view that ‘the solid resistance at 0.6175 may be tough to break’. However, NZD blast past 0.6175 yesterday (26 May) with nary a glance and rocketed to a high of 0.6228. At this stage, there is no sign of a top but 0.6230 is another solid resistance and NZD has to move clearly above this level before further sustained advance can be expected (next resistance is at 0.6300). The odds for such a move appear to be slightly better than even as long as NZD continues to hold above the ‘strong support’ (level had moved higher to 0.6110 from 0.6035).”