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  • US holiday, lack of major data/events confine NZD/USD moves.
  • 200-day EMA acts as a tough nut to crack for buyers.
  • Political/trade headlines can supply intermediate liquidity.

Despite witnessing bulls’ another defeat to cross 200-day EMA resistance, the NZD/USD remains largely unchanged near 0.6690 at the start of Friday’s Asian session.

Be it the absence of major catalysts on the economic calendar or the US holiday, global markets were dull on Thursday. Though, disappointing statistics from Eurozone kept supporting fears of ultra-easy monetary policy going forward.

With this, the US Dollar (USD) managed to remain on a front foot despite the US Independence Day holiday and mixed headlines for the US-China trade aspect.

While latest news suggests that the US and Chinese lawmakers are already discussing trade and will be on call during the next week, latest rhetoric against China’s Huawei and push to release detained Canadian citizens by the US can add uncertainty into pre-existing doubts over the trade truce agreement.

Given the absence of data/event from New Zealand, the Kiwi pair will take cues from the US employment data wherein the Nonfarm Payrolls will especially be on the lookout to gauge how close it is for the Federal Reserve to announce a rate cut. Forecasts suggest 160K mark against 75K prior for the headline job indicator.

Technical Analysis

With its repeated failures to cross 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) level of 0.6718, coupled with downward sloping 14-day relative strength index (RSI), prices are likely to revisit 100-day EMA level of 0.6664 ahead of highlighting 0.6610 for sellers.

In a case buyers manage to cross the key EMA resistance, mid-April high around 0.6784 and the April month top surrounding 0.6840 may come back on the chart.