NZD/USD: On the bids around 0.6420 after upbeat NZ retail sales data

• NZD/USD benefits from the early indicator of Q3 GDP.
• Higher than anticipated Retail Sales ex-Autos gain major attention.
• Trade news, speech from RBA’s Debelle will be in the spotlight for now.

Give the better than expected figures of New Zealand’s (NZ) Q3 retail sales, NZD/USD takes the bids to 0.6420 during early Asian morning on Tuesday.

New Zealand’s third quarter (Q3) Retail Sales rose past-1.2% forecast to 1.6% while Retail Sales ex-Autos grew beyond 1.5% expectations to 1.8%. With the early indicator of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registering an uptick, odds of another positive GDP number are increasing. The second quarter (Q2) GDP from New Zealand neared the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) forecast while rising 0.5% QoQ and 2.1% YoY.

Apart from the recently released NZ data, trade sentiment has mostly been upbeat amid increasing odds of the US-China phase one deal. Weekend comments from the United States (US) President Donald Trump and China’s likely step forward to tame the copyright infringement could be considered as initial measures to boost market optimism. Also improving the mood were the latest trade positive headlines from the Global Times and South China Morning Post (SCMP).

That said, the US dollar (USD) managed to hold its status as a market favorite despite witnessing mixed economics, as cited by Chicago National Activity Index and Dallas Fed manufacturing index. The reason could be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) wait for the key catalysts amid broad optimism.

Traders will now keep an eye over comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Guy Debelle. The reason is Australia’s close trade ties with New Zealand. Following that, housing and manufacturing indices from the US, coupled with Consumer Confidence, could keep traders busy. Though, the importance of the trade/political headlines will not be dimmed.

Technical Analysis

The pair seesaws between the 100 and 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), respectively around 0.6425 and 0.6385, while an upward sloping trend line since mid-October, at 0.6360, offering addition support below 21-day SMA.