NZD/USD: Probing 100-day MA hurdle despite growing doubts over US-China trade deal

• NZD/USD is flirting with the stiff 100-day average hurdle amid the uptick in the S&P 500 futures.  
• Risk assets are bid despite growing doubts over the US-China trade deal.  

NZD/USD is solidly bid at press time despite the growing doubts over the possibility of the US-China trade deal.  

The Kiwi is currently probing the 100-day moving average (MA) hurdle at 0.6425, having found bids at 0.6405 in the early Asian session.  

The phase two of the US-China trade deal is looking less likely, according to U.S. and Beijing officials, lawmakers and trade experts, given the two sides are struggling to ratify the phase one of the trade deal.  

In fact, Reuters reported last week that the signing of the phase one could be pushed out to next year.  

Even so, Kiwi and other riskier assets are flashing green. Notably, the futures on the S&P 500 are currently reporting a 0.30% gain on the day and China’s Yuan has risen to 7.03 per US dollar from Friday’s low of 7.0416 per US Dollar.  

Looking forward, the pair remains at the mercy of the overall market sentiment. Note that the US 10-year Treasury yield is currently up two basis points at 1.786%. NZD/USD, therefore, may drop quickly in case the equities surrender gains.  

Technical levels

NZD/USD has failed four times in the last 21 days to close above the 100-day MA. The average, therefore, is the level to beat for the bulls. A convincing move higher will likely invite stronger buying pressure, yielding a rise to 0.6473 (inverse head-and-shoulders neckline).