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  • NZD/USD keeps recovery moves from 0.6105 after New Zealand (NZ) quarterly Retail Sales.
  • Risk-tone stays sluggish amid US-China tussle, virus woes.
  • RBNZ’s Yuong Ha said that they expect to hold the OCR at the current level until March 2021.
  • A light calendar will keep the focus on the trade/virus updates for fresh impulse.

NZD/USD pays a little heed to New Zealand’s Q1 Retail Sales while extending recovery moves to 0.6125, despite mixed data, during the early Asian session on Friday.

New Zealand’s first quarter (Q1) Retail Sales data flashed mixed signals. While the headline Retail Sales dropped 0.7% QoQ versus +0.7% prior, the Retail Sales ex-Autos gained 0.6% versus 0.5% previous readouts.

Given the data survey period comprising only a mild lockdown, the traders failed to react to economics despite being the key economics.

That said, the pair dropped on Thursday as the US-China tussle intensified after Chinese diplomats showed readiness to harshly safeguard their interest. This could be considered as an indirect warning to the US as the Trump administration showed their intension, earlier in May, to keep Hong Kong free. Additionally, US allegation on the dragon nation for the virus outbreak and discomfort with the trade deal also puts the world’s largest economy on the Asian major’s radar.

Also exerting the downside pressure on the pair was the US dollar recovery from the 14-day low. The greenback gained across the board the previous day amid the mild risk-off and better than forecast activity data. Further to support the US currency was the Fed policymakers’ efforts to talk down the negative rates.

It should also be noted that the increase in the global virus cases, also a rise in the numbers from the South US, fails to stop US President Donald Trump from favoring economic restart.

Moving on, the economic calendar seems to be a lighter one and hence keeping the trade/virus updates in the spotlight for fresh direction.

Technical analysis

NZD/USD has been gradually building upside momentum since early-April but has so far failed to cross 100-day EMA, currently around 0.6175, on a daily closing basis. In addition to the 100-day EMA, the resistance line of a short-term rising channel, at 0.6205, also checks the bulls. Meanwhile, 50-day EMA near 0.6080 can offer nearby support during the pair’s U-turn ahead of 0.6000 round-figure. However, a major downside isn’t expected unless the quote breaks channel formation by slipping beneath the 0.5930 support.